While many of us have suspected for some time that the leaders of this country were coming unglued, it is increasingly apparent that the American Empire is fraying at the edges. As much as part of me wants to pour a glass fine bourbon and drink to its demise, I fear that the transformation we are witnessing will not be a happy one for us.
Let us review the facts:
The President and VP of the United States have lost the support of all but a radical fringe of the Republican party, and have even succeeded in alienating the traditional base in the last six weeks. The White House has gone into siege mode, and is increasingly desperate to redeem the Bush legacy - even if it means bringing the ominous predictions of a generation long battle for the Middle East to fruition. This administration has demonstrated its willingness to exploit terrorism and war to increase its political power, and there is no reason to believe that they will not attempt to do so again. Their record of restricting freedoms and trampling the constitution in the name of security may precipitate a confrontation in the event of intervention in Iran or Pakistan.
Congress has abysmal approval ratings, and cannot enforce the cooperation or obedience of the White House given a highly politicized Justice Department and the culture of loyalty fostered within it and the rest of the Executive. The Supreme Court is packed with Bush followers as well, and it is unlikely to provide any significant check on executive power even if it becomes obvious that the President is acting outside his constitutionally limited role. The mainstream media has been effectively neutered by the Bush Administration's overt carrot and stick policy of offering unprecedented access to compliant reporters but mercilessly freezing out the opposition.
Spaces for popular protest are being closed by widely publicized yet continuing surveillance programs that may allow government access to highly personal data and the communications of any American citizen. Knowledge of this capability combined with a well executed crack down on a few classes of social deviant could produce the kind of self censorship upon which true authoritarianism depends. Moreover, many Americans are still in the dark about the nature of the economic and political crisis facing this country, and can be easily manipulated by demagogues as a result. Since the 60's, Americans have lost faith in the efficacy of protest and street action to bring about lasting change, and participants in such acts of resistance are viewed as hopeless radicals or dreamers.
The immense quantity and diversity of information available on the Internet has resulted in a sort of ideological fragmentation, and without filters and mediators of culture, it becomes impossible to mobilize new coalitions that will have impact on the democratic process. The Web 2.0 phenomenon and the rise of social networking may permit a true political dialog to resume in time, but for the moment these forums are underdeveloped and lack the kind of cross cutting participation that would make them viable vehicles for change.
Despite the lull in terrorism at home during the last few years, it is still quite likely that we will be attacked again. Given that the stated goal of our enemies is to turn us against each other by exploiting the tendency of our government to overreact to perceived threats, we have done a poor job of sticking together. In an atmosphere of fear an uncertainty and absent a real alternative to Republicrat orthodoxy, the path of least resistance for politicians is more redistributive populism, more deficit spending, and more war. However, military power cannot solve our essentially political foreign policy problems, our country is already committed to entitlements it cannot afford, and increased government intervention in the economy is likely to undermine our few remaining competitive advantages.
While this all sounds quite bleak, even to a bleak prediction aficionado like myself, it is important to point out that all my short term pessimism is tempered by a firmly held belief that in the long run I will be dead as fried chicken along with all the the sons of bitches that got us into this mess. With any luck they'll go before we do and we'll have a chance to clean the place up a bit before its time to go.
But seriously, what I was going to say before the black wave came over me is that in the long run, it really doesn't matter if the federal government implodes and America becomes a pitiable backwater. Those of us that can flee will do so as people have done for all of recorded history, and we will carry with us the ideas, the information, and the drive that made this country a great place to live. In other words, lets give the reform thing the old college try, but if it doesn't work, well, keep practicing that Spanish.
