On the eve of the election, let’s take a moment to consider the possibilities and what they would mean for the country.
Scenario 1: The Republicans get destroyed.
All the truly contested districts go to the Democrats, who will now hold majorities in both houses of Congress.
As they have argued to the public, these incoming representatives and senators view the election as a referendum on President Bush. In order to satisfy their constituents, they will issue a wave of subpoenas to key Administration officials. If the gritty details of the country at war are half as interesting as I expect, the resulting media circus and the opportunity for windbaggery it provides will keep the Democrat-controlled Congress from doing anything but talk. They may enact some punitive and purely symbolic legislation aimed at taxing rich people more heavily or regulating drug prices, but these measures will be unhesitatingly vetoed by the President.
If all this comes to pass, I believe the Republican Party will actually emerge stronger. Americans will get a snoot full of the Democrats and they won’t like it. The leadership will look mean when they yell at the administration officials, and they certainly won’t have any legislative accomplishments to speak of in 2008. The Republican Party will be renewed and motivated by its defeat as the election will serve as a purge for the corrupt and worn out members who have allowed the party to drift away from genuine conservatism. I have placed this possibility first because it holds my great hope: that the libertarians and traditional conservatives will realign against the Neocons and the crazy Christians to articulate a more sensible and measured policy than the “permanent revolution” of today’s leaders.
Scenario 2: The Democrats get destroyed.
All the seats that were in play go to the Republicans, and they maintain control of both houses.
This will come as a surprise for Republican lawmakers who have been dodging a new scandal every 2 weeks since summer. If the Democrats are unable to take at least one house of Congress tomorrow, they are finished. It shows that they will never be able to shake the caricature of them drawn by Newt Gingrich and his new Republicans during the 90’s. If they can’t win now, they can’t win ever.
With that said, the Republican party will not be invigorated by a victory, and will face determined obstructionism from the other side of the aisle. There will be no momentum conferred because the same old guard with the same old ideas will remain in Congress. They may attempt some legislative reforms, they may take a stab at some oversight, but the acts will be half-hearted and unconvincing. There will be nothing to talk about but the presidential race, a prospect that I find quite depressing. However, a contest between two utterly bankrupt parties offers the first real opportunity for a third party candidate in many many years.
Scenario 3: It’s a toss up.
This one is the tricky one. The Democrats capture one or both houses of Congress by a slim margin, have no clear mandate, and are forced to govern in cooperation with the Republicans or not at all.
This outcome signals continuing dissatisfaction with both parties and very little slack for political games.
In this case, there are two possibilities. If the leadership of both parties is stupid, there will be total gridlock, daily wild accusations from one corner or the other, and a 2 year period so totally enraging that the American people will be ready to elect anybody, provided he can make Congress shut up. Dissatisfaction not with the politicians of the moment but with politics in general has historically preceded the emergence of authoritarian leaders, and if another large scale terrorist attack takes place the polity will be in a very dangerous position.
If the leaders of Congress asses the situation with some uncharacteristic sobriety, they will realize that the price of continued partisan bickering will be felt in ’08 by the party deemed most responsible. In this case, they will come to negotiating table and play nice. The Republicans will have no choice but to distance themselves from Bush and agree to sideline their more inflammatory social legislation. In return, the Democrats will leave the tax cuts alone and try to refocus the populism that made them a national party in the first place by “doing something for the middle class.”
Predictions anyone?
